According to @OnchainLens, two newly created wallets bought YES shares in Polymarket’s Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 market, with Regimehasfallen spending $30,000 and thecomplicatedguy spending $20,000 while still holding $20,038 USDC on-chain, and @OnchainLens stated the latter is likely to buy more; source: @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026) and Polymarket profile pages at polymarket.com/@Regimehasfallen and polymarket.com/@thecomplicatedguy.

According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), a newly created wallet deposited $9,069 into Polymarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?" (source: @OnchainLens on X). According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), this order constitutes a single-wallet directional position with $9,069 risk deployed toward a YES outcome in that geopolitical market (source: @OnchainLens on X).

According to @lookonchain, the trader’s largest loss was $1.58M on the Polymarket Liverpool to win contract after buying YES at $0.66, highlighting a misread of implied probability, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026. The account adds that paying $0.66 for YES means you believe the true win probability exceeds 66%, and treating Polymarket like binary sports betting rather than probability trading drove most of the losses, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026.